The 2024-25 Nations League has undergone a format change with a new quarter final stage added to the competition, allowing the top two from each group to qualify for the finals. In earlier editions, only the group winners advanced to the knockout stage but now the runners-up will also be included. As a case, the stakes have risen in the competition giving some exciting results and only Spain secured qualification before the final group games in November. Portugal, Italy, France and Germany remain in pole position to qualify while Croatia, Denmark and Netherlands have work to do. We look at every team’s chances to move into the next round.
Group A
Portugal
Portugal was a win away from securing a berth in the quarterfinals after winning their first three matches of League A Group A of the 2024-25 Nation League season, however, a goalless draw against Scotland in the reverse clash put a hold on their knockout qualification until November. The Selecao needs just one more win in the remaining two matches to seal a top-two berth but they will want to clinch the top spot after an unbeaten start to the tournament. Portugal wishes to finish the job against third-placed Poland to ease off their load before facing second-placed Croatia in the last game of the group stage.
Fixtures
Portugal vs Poland - Estadio do Dragao, Porto (16 November 2024)
Croatia vs Portugal - Stadion Poljud, Split (19 November 2024)
Croatia
Despite losing their Nations League opener to the inaugural competition winners, Croatia bounced back with a 1-0 and a 2-0 win over Poland and Scotland respectively. However, like Portugal, they could have moved closer to the quarterfinals within a point of the leaders but a thrilling 3-3 draw in the away match against Poland kept their second place standing up in the air. Regardless, Croatia’s destiny remains in their own hand with four points from the next two games being enough for them while a win could also do if Poland slips off in their remaining fixtures.
Fixtures
Scotland vs Croatia - Hampden Park, Glasgow (16 November 2024)
Croatia vs Portugal - Stadion Poljud, Split (19 November 2024)
Poland
The 3-3 draw against Croatia kept Poland’s chance of moving into the top-two spot alive although they have to rely on other results to make it possible. After two straight losses since winning against Scotland in September, this result brings them within three points of the second spot with Michal Probierz's side having to win both of their last two matches in November to stand a chance. A loss will end their chance of moving into the quarterfinals as Croatia have a better head-to-head record than the Poles if the points are the same at the end of the games. However, Poland remains in contention for the playoff spot and could achieve it with a win or a point if Scotland loses in the next matches.
Fixtures
Portugal vs Poland - Estadio do Dragao, Porto (16 November 2024)
Poland vs Scotland - National Stadium, Warszawa (19 November 2024)
Scotland
Scotland needed to win against leaders Portugal to keep their hopes for the quarterfinals alive but a draw means they cannot finish in the top-two. Steve Clark’s side lost the rest of the matches in their disappointing start to their life in League A after their promotion from League B last season. The bottom-placed side has to focus now to avoid relegation with the first point earned in the previous match. Scotland remains three points behind Poland in third and needs to avoid defeat at all costs in the remaining matches. The Tartan Army has to take at least four points in the November matches to avoid relegation although they have to rely on Poland losing points.
Fixtures
Scotland vs Croatia - Hampden Park, Glasgow (16 November 2024)
Poland vs Scotland - National Stadium, Warszawa (19 November 2024)
Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
Portugal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
Croatia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
Scotland | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Group B
Italy
Despite a forgetful Euro defence in the summer, Italy has turned back its form by topping their group in the Nations League. They lead the 2021 winners France by a point and Belgium by six. The Azzurri beat Les Blues 3-1 in the tournament opener and pointless Israel twice with a draw against the Red Devils sandwiched in between. Collecting 10 points from the first four games almost guarantees them a place in the quarterfinals. Luciano Spalletti's side requires only a point now to fulfill their dream albeit their remaining matches are against heavyweights in the group.
Fixtures
Belgium vs Italy - King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels (15 November 2024)
Italy vs France - San Siro, Milan (18 November 2024)
France
France faced a shock 3-1 loss at the hands of Italy in their Nations League opener this season, forcing them to react in the next matches and perform adequately. Didier Deschamps’ side returned to winning ways with wins in both fixtures against Belgium with a 4-1 thrashing of Israel in between. As a case, Les Blues hogged the second spot and are just a point away from the leaders. France also requires just a point to make their place in the quarterfinals and will want to finish the job against Israel before playing a top-of-the-table clash with Italy in reverse fixtures in November.
Fixtures
France vs Israel - Stade de France, Paris (15 November 2024)
Italy vs France - San Siro, Milan (18 November 2024)
Belgium
The 2-1 loss to France in the last game put Belgium’s top-two contention in jeopardy as they now need big help from elsewhere to book a place in the quarterfinals. Even though the Red Devils began the 2024-25 Nations League campaign with a 3-1 win over Israel, they failed to beat the other top sides in the group collecting just four points from four games. Five points behind second-placed France, Domenico Tedesco’s side has no way but to win the remaining matches and hope both Les Blues and leaders Italy don’t take any further points from here which is a big ask. Only a miracle could change the fortunes of Belgium as they most likely will play relegation playoff next year.
Fixtures
Belgium vs Italy - King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels (15 November 2024)
Israel vs Belgium - Bozsik Arena, Budapest (18 November 2024)
Israel
With a fourth straight loss, Israel has no chance of making it into the knockout stage and fears immediate relegation after their promotion from League B in the last edition. The SkyBlues have to win their remaining matches and rely on Belgium not taking more than a point in the November games to have a shot for the third spot which seems improbable. Israel faces the Red Devils in the final game but their faint hopes could be dented facing the leaders in the penultimate match.
Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
Italy | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
France | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
Belgium | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
Israel | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Group C
Germany
Germany has dominated their group in League A by picking up full points in all but one of the four matches and sitting five clear at the top. The 1-0 win over the Netherlands in the home fixture leaves Die Mannschaft just two points away from being uncatchable by any other team in the group. Considering Julian Nagelsmann’s side face Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary in November, they will be confident of sealing a place in the quarterfinals as group winners. It will be a significant achievement considering the German failed to get into the knockouts in any of the past Nations League editions.
Fixtures
Germany vs Bosnia and Herzegovina - Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg (17 November 2024)
Hungary vs Germany - Puskas Arena, Budapest (20 November 2024)
Netherlands
The loss against Germany tasted bitter for the Netherlands as they have failed to win the last three games now since their huge 5-2 win over Bosnia to start the season. Despite that, the Dutch remain second due to a better goal difference than Hungary, whom they face in the next Nations League game at home in November. That encounter will go down as the battle for the second spot with the Dutch progressing with a win. However, qualification will be delayed till the final group match if Ronald Koeman’s side plays another draw like in the reverse fixture.
Fixtures
Netherlands vs Hungary - Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam (17 November 2024)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Netherlands - Bilino Polje Stadium, Zenica (20 November 2024)
Hungary
After a humiliating 5-0 defeat to Germany at home, Hungary refounded themselves with consecutive home draws with Bosnia & Herzegovina and the Netherlands before defeating the former 2-0 away. Marco Rossi’s team sit third with five points after this result but face a tough schedule with games against the top two in November. Hungary need to win the remaining matches to stand a chance to be in the top two while a draw will put their qualification fate on the final day. However, a loss against the Netherlands in the next match will end their hopes.
Fixtures
Netherlands vs Hungary - Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam (17 November 2024)
Hungary vs Germany - Puskas Arena, Budapest (20 November 2024)
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bottom-placed Bosnia and Herzegovina have a bleak chance of making it to the quarterfinals after registering just one point from the first four matches. For that, they need to upset both Germany and the Netherlands alongside Hungary failing to secure any more points. The realistic situation for them is to avoid relegation but that path also looks tough due to their schedule with the Magyars likely to claim the third spot having four points better than them.
Fixtures
Germany vs Bosnia and Herzegovina - Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg (17 November 2024)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Netherlands - Bilino Polje Stadium, Zenica (20 November 2024)
Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
Germany | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
Netherlands | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
Hungary | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
Group D
Spain (Qualified)
The Euro 2024 champions are the only team to have secured qualification to the quarterfinals before the November games after a 3-0 over Serbia and Denmark dropping points in the 2-2 draw against Switzerland. Recovering from their unusual 0-0 draw with the Serbs in the reverse fixture to start the tournament, La Roja secured a 4-1 win over the Swiss and then a 1-0 victory against the Danes to rise on of the group before the success in their last game of October. Luis de la Fuente’s side will now use the remaining matches to stem their position on top of the group and use them as preparation for the finals next year. The team would also like to maintain their 14-game unbeaten run.
Fixtures
Denmark vs Spain - Parken Stadium, Copenhagen (16 November 2024)
Spain vs Switzerland - Heliodoro Rodríguez López, Tenerife (19 November 2024)
Denmark
Denmark lost the top spot to Spain and then the unwanted draw against Switzerland halted their qualification until November. After opening their Nations League campaign this season and a new era under Lars Knudsen, the set of disappointments will be of concern as the Danes will face La Roja and third-place Serbia in the rest of the matches. The game against the latter will go down as the second-place decider as Serbia are just three points behind them. Denmark needs to win the remaining matches to confirm their place in the quarterfinals or getting four points will do their case.
Fixtures
Denmark vs Spain - Parken Stadium, Copenhagen (16 November 2024)
Serbia vs Denmark - Dubočica Stadium, Serbia (19 November 2024)
Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
Spain | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
Denmark | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
Serbia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
Switzerland | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
